04-19-11 Trade - USD/JPY Long @ 82.50

Basically what we're betting on over here is a S+R play w/ a Harmonic Pattern setting up on the Support Zone.

In this 1st pic you see a Gartley/Butterfly (a Gartlerfly - a harmonic pattern that qualifies for both depending on where the X starting point is) with a convergence point between 82.44 - 82.41.

The convergence zone also lined up with a 61.8% Fib retracement of the previous larger up-swing (as seen on the 240min pic above - with the right gray circle being the pattern on the 30min chart). So the pattern meets our criteria of having a convergence zone.

The above pic shows how price broke the declining trend line and is currently retesting the support zone. 

From an Elliott Perspective the whole decline from 85.51 looks corrective...Either a 2, 4, or X if this whole move from the 76.21 low is a massive dbl or triple zig zag. Its long and deep, messy, and difficult to count, however its a perfect example of alternation if its a Wave 4 or X as the first 'corrective' move (labeled wave 2 in the pic above) was sidways and short. Should this be the end of the correction prices should bounce from this level to challenge the high @ 85.50.

I have a small position @ 82.50, with a stop @ 82.10.  Tgt open for now.

Stack @ 82.45, another pattern formed, however this one looked like it have a very imulsive X-A leg.

FX Analysis Jan 20/2011 - Euro

Euro:

I've got 2 different scenarios layed out for the Euro, both are immediately Bearish with the main difference being the degree of the decline.

Scenario 1 - 
Euro has completed 5 waves down (in red) and is in the process of correcting the decline, with what seems to be an Impulsive 5 wave .a (red).  Should the advance be complete, Euro should fall in 3 waves, completing w .b (red), before advancing again to complete w .c (red).

Its a tricky situation bc the correction has already reached the 4th wave of lesser degree w .iv (red) - which is one of the common turn around points for corrections, however price has not yet reached 50% of the W. 1 (white) retracement which stands @ 1.3575.

Scenario 2 - 
I'm a Euro Bear and have my money on this scenario, I'm already short Euro and have an avg. short price of 1.3842.


This count see's w. 1 (white) still in progress with the completion of w. iv (red) @ 1.3538, and price is currently carving out a 1-2 (green) of a 1-2 (blue), which may also be the right shoulder of a head and shoulders reversal pattern.  There are a lot of funky trendlines running through this area, so price is getting caught up in them as the bulls and bears decide whos going to that this thing to the next level.  Daily and 60min stochs are overbought and coming out of overbought respectively.

 

Long Euro Set-up

07/10/10 - Aussie Swing Trade Set Up

Entry  0.9843
Stop  0.9926
Tgt    0.9650


The Set-Up



The Target